Course Programme

The programme of this ASI will revolve around the following four main modules:

A) Generation of initial conditions for dynamical model forecasts
B) Dynamical models and their coupling
C) Statistical modelling, calibration and model output assessment
D) Application of forecast products to specific users with emphasis on applications related to security

As well as making students acquainted with the seasonal to interannual climate prediction background, an important focus of the lectures will be to present and highlight those aspects which need most research development. Students will also be exposed to practical exercises, which they will have to solve during the duration of the ASI course.

At the very beginning of the course, one experienced lecturer will give a series of overview lectures, with the purpose to explain the scientific basis of seasonal to interannual climate forecasting, its state of the art, and to briefly discuss each of the four modules listed above and which will be developed in the following lecture series. Another experienced lecturer will wrap up the course by summarising the main issues emerged during this ASI and by giving an outlook to future developments.

Lectures will be 45-min long with intervals of at least 15 minutes for discussion. In addition to the lectures, we will have two evening panel sessions, which will be reviewed in a final panel session at the very end of the ASI. The outcome of these panel sessions will be summarised as a list of suggested action items.

LECTURERS:

• Prof David Anderson (ECMWF, UK)
• Dr Omar Baddour (National Met Service, Morocco)
• Dr Michael Coughlan (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
• Dr Michael Glantz (NCAR, USA)
• Dr Mike Harrison (Meteorological Office, UK)
• Prof Brian Hoskins (University of Reading, UK)
• Dr Paul Llanso (USA)
• Dr Simon Mason (IRI, Columbia University, USA)
• Dr Abdallah Mokssit (National Met Service, Morocco)
• Dr Antonio Navarra (INGV, Italy)
• Prof Paul Schopf (COLA/George Mason University, USA)
• Dr David Stephenson (University of Reading, UK)
• Dr Joe Tribbia (NCAR, USA)
• Dr Alberto Troccoli (ECMWF, UK)
• Dr Jim Williams (UK)

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SUGGESTED BACKGROUND READING

• Prof David Anderson

• Dr Joe Tribbia
• Dr Alberto Troccoli
  • F. Bouttier and P. Courtier (1999) "Data assimilation concepts and methods", Lecture Notes, ECMWF.
  • Anderson, D., T. Stockdale, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F. Vitart, P. Doblas-Reyes,
    R. Hagedorn, T. Jung, A. Vidard, A. Troccoli and T. Palmer (2003)
    Comparison of the ECMWF seasonal forecast Systems 1 and 2, including the relative performance for the 1997/8 El Nino , Tech Memo 404, ECMWF.

• Prof Paul Schopf
• Prof Brian Hoskins
• Dr Antonio Navarra

• Dr Omar Baddour
• Dr David Stephenson
  • For an overview of forecast verification:
    "Forecast Verification : A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science"
    by Ian T. Jolliffe (Editor), David B. Stephenson (Editor)
  • For an overview of basic statistics:
    http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/stats
    
• Dr Simon Mason (IRI, Columbia University, USA)

• Dr Mike Harrison
  • Report on the Pretoria 2000 Workshop on the RCOFs: "Coping with the Climate: A Way Forward"
• Dr Abdallah Mokssit
• Dr Paul Llanso
  • UNU (2001) Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-1998 El Niño. Tokyo, United Nations University (ISBN 92 808 1063 4)
  • WHO (2001) Malaria Early Warning Systems: Concepts, indicators and partners. Geneva, Roll Back Malaria Cabinet Project, World Health Organization (WHO/CDS/RBM/2000.32)
  • WHO (2003a) Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses. Geneva, World Health Organization (ISBN 92 4 156248 X)
  • WHO (2003b) Methods of assessing human health vulnerability and public health adaptation to climate change. WHO Regional Office for Europe (ISBN 92 890 1090 8)
  • WHO (2004a) Heat-waves: risks and responses. WHO Regional Office for Europe
  • WHO (2004b) Using climate to predict infectious disease outbreaks: a review. Geneva, World Health Organization
  • WMO (2003a) Guidelines on Climate Observation Networks and Systems. Geneva, World Meteorological Organization (WCDMP No. 52)
  • WMO (2003b) Guidelines on Climate Metadata and Homogenization. Geneva, World Meteorological Organization (WCDMP No. 53)
• Dr Michael Glantz

• Dr Michael Coughlan

• Dr Jim Williams
  • Sustainable Development in Africa

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SUNDAY 29/5: OPTIONAL FULL DAY EXCURSION

• Opening (15 min each):
  • Gen Roberto Sorani
  • Sen Maria Rosaria Manieri
  • On Lorenzo Ria

• OV: Prof David Anderson
• A1: Dr Joe Tribbia
• A2: Dr Alberto Troccoli
• B1: Prof Paul Schopf
• B2: Prof Brian Hoskins
• B3: Dr Antonio Navarra
• C1: Dr Omar Baddour
• C2: Dr Simon Mason
• C3: Dr David Stephenson
• D1: Dr Mike Harrison
• D2: Dr Abdallah Mokssit
• D3: Dr Paul Llanso
• D4: Dr Michael Glantz
• CONC: Dr Michael Coughlan
• Panel Sessions Chair: Dr Jim Williams

• Guest Lecturers:
  • Prof James O'Brien (FSU, USA)
  • Mr Penehuro Lefale